What pipeline coverage tells you
Pipeline coverage is your open pipeline divided by what you still need to close. If you need $200,000 more this quarter and have $500,000 in open deals, your coverage is 2.5×.
Is 3× coverage the right number?
"Have 3× pipeline" is a common rule of thumb. It only makes sense if you win about a third of your opportunities. The better target is 1 ÷ your win rate. At a 25% win rate you need about 4× coverage. At 40% you only need 2.5×. The calculator shows both the rule of thumb and the win-rate version.
Worked example
Quarter target $300,000, closed $100,000, so the gap is $200,000. Open pipeline is $500,000 (2.5× coverage), and the historical win rate is 25%.
- Pipeline needed at 25%: $200,000 ÷ 0.25 = $800,000
- Shortfall: $300,000, or about 15 new opportunities at a $20,000 average deal
- Weighted by stage, the same pipeline is worth about $167,000, a forecast of $267,000 (89% of target)
Two ways of looking at it, one answer: this rep needs more pipeline, and needs it early in the quarter.
Weighted pipeline vs. coverage
Coverage treats every open dollar the same. A weighted pipeline discounts each deal by its stage. A deal in negotiation counts for much more than one in discovery. Weighted pipeline is usually a better forecast. Coverage is a better early warning for "do I have enough at bats?" Use both.
Keep the pipeline honest
- Every deal needs a next step with a date. No next step usually means it isn't really a live deal.
- Move stale close dates. A close date in the past is a forecast error waiting to happen.
- Use your own stage percentages. Look at what share of deals that reached each stage actually closed over the last few quarters.
- Close-lost faster. Removing dead deals hurts your coverage number today, but gives you a real picture and frees time to prospect.
FAQ
How do you calculate pipeline coverage?
Divide your open pipeline value by the amount you still need to close in the period (target minus closed). $500k pipeline against a $200k gap is 2.5× coverage.
What is a good pipeline coverage ratio?
Roughly 1 ÷ your win rate. 3× is a common rule of thumb because it fits a ~33% win rate. If you win 25% of opportunities, aim for about 4×.
What is weighted pipeline?
Weighted pipeline multiplies each deal's value by the probability of winning at its stage and adds them up. It's a more realistic forecast than the raw pipeline total.
How many new opportunities do I need?
Take the pipeline shortfall (pipeline needed − current pipeline) and divide by your average deal size. The calculator shows this automatically.